The 31-year-old righty is coming off a stellar year in Kansas City where he posted a 3.24 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but his FIP (3.94) and mediocre K-rate (6.87) suggest he overachieved with his final stat line. To be fair, Santana significantly lowered his BB- and HR-rates while raising his ground-ball rate, but we've seen these types of improvements from him before without seeing any long-term consistency.
The bigger worry for Santana is the move to a much less pitcher-friendly ballpark. Toronto's Rogers Centre ranks second in our Ballpark Power Index and saw the second-most HRs/game last year (2.6). Conversely, Kauffman Stadium in Kansas City ranks 18th and saw just 1.5 HR/game. Santana did pitch marginally better away from home last year, but his main Achilles' Heel has always been the long ball, so this doesn't seem like a great marriage.
The AL East was also the toughest division on pitchers last year, allowing the fewest wins, second-fewest strikeouts and the highest ERA (4.24) and WHIP (1.34). The Blue Jays were obviously part of the reason the AL East was so tough to pitch against, but Santana will undoubtedly be facing tougher competition than he did while in the AL Central (3.91/1.33).
No one can deny that Santana has talent, but he's not going to an ideal situation. It would be surprising to see him consistently produce for fantasy owners, and there's going to be more risk than potential reward most nights now that he's in Toronto. Feel free to draft him in the late rounds (he went in the 23rd round of our latest mock draft), but be selective about when you use him.
As a side note, you can probably take top-prospect Marcus Stroman off your draft boards, as he's much less likely to crack to the Opening Day rotation now.
